The volatility of nickel prices has long been a critical factor influencing the stainless steel supply chain. Recently, with raw material prices holding steady and downstream demand showing signs of recovery, stainless steel futures prices have started to climb. According to recent reports, while the import of nickel ores has increased seasonally, mining operations in the Philippines have shown strong price-supporting intentions, with opening prices remaining high. Furthermore, due to recent frequent nickel mine accidents, the Indonesian domestic base price for nickel ore has increased by $0.20 to $0.30 per ton in the second round of September 2025, with premiums remaining at $24 per ton.

However, the market outlook is far from optimistic. Despite stable raw material prices, the release of downstream demand remains slow. Pre-festival stocking demand is not evident, and transaction volumes remain subdued. On the macroeconomic front, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, China's policy stance has remained positive, though the effectiveness of these measures in stimulating demand remains to be seen.

From an industry chain perspective, fluctuations in nickel prices directly impact the production costs of stainless steel. Nickel, being a key alloying element in stainless steel production, sees its price increases directly raising production costs, which in turn affects market prices. Steel mills, when faced with rising raw material costs, often pass these costs onto consumers by increasing product prices. However, if downstream demand fails to keep pace with these price hikes, it could result in a further shrinkage of demand, creating a vicious cycle.

Thus, nickel price fluctuations represent more than just a battle in the raw material market; they are a microcosm of the larger battle within the entire stainless steel industry. Manufacturers, traders, and end users must adapt their strategies to market fluctuations by considering cost, demand, and market forecasts to remain competitive in a complex environment.